Projecting Future Need
Back to topDeveloping a Projection of Future Teacher Need: Weighing Projected Supply against Projected Demand
At the simplest level, calculating the future need for teachers is simply a matter of comparing projected demand against projected supply (step 1 below). Several additional steps may be considered, however, in order to enhance the accuracy and usefulness of the future need calculation:
- Determine the extent to which the projected statewide supply of teachers for the next 5-10 years matches the projected statewide demand for that same period
- This can be carried out using either the first-order estimates or the more refined estimates suggested in the guidelines for developing supply and demand projections
- If projections of district-specific supply and demand have been developed, the resulting need can be projected for specific districts, as well
- To the extent possible, reconcile statewide and district-specific projections of the future need for teachers
- It is valuable to attempt to factor into the need projections the desire to have more applicants for science and mathematics teaching positions than there are positions available. A surplus of applicants allows for greater selectivity in hiring and thus increases the likelihood of hiring better quality teachers
Elaboration
Some of this reconciliation already should have been accomplished in developing and refining the first-order projections of both demand and supply. District-level projections may need to be further adjusted, however, to reflect the specific district impact of factors such as changes to the science and mathematics curriculum, more rigorous high school requirements in science and mathematics, or new state expectations for teacher qualifications. At the same time, statewide projections should reflect some of the nuances of the supply and demand picture in individual districts as well as providing an overall picture of the state’s ability to meet its demand for teachers. This is necessary if state policymakers and education leaders are to identify the most fruitful avenues for developing appropriate responses and predict with any confidence the likely impact of various policy options under consideration. An overall statewide estimate may indicate, for example, that the current production capacity of new science and mathematics teachers comes close to meeting the aggregate demand, but specific districts may be unable to recruit the teachers they need from state preparation programs. Conversely, a statewide estimate may indicate a severe overall shortage of science and mathematics teachers, but some districts may in fact have an abundance of qualified applicants.
Although it is desirable to have as much consistency as possible between state-level and district-level projections of supply and demand, there are inevitable differences between them that make reconciliation difficult. Projections generated at the individual district level are likely to reflect a much more fine-grained analysis than the state-generated projection for specific districts. A good district estimate will make more use of detailed information concerning the specific sources, quality, classroom effectiveness, and attrition rate of the district’s science and mathematics teachers, as well as relevant information about the local labor market, the local reserve pool of teachers, and the diverse needs of individual schools. This is simply a level of detail that it is beyond the ability of states – and even many individual districts – to collect, let alone to incorporate into a statewide analysis.
Beyond the difference in the level of detail, however, there may be an inherent conflict between statewide and district level interests that can lead to divergent projections of the need for science and mathematics teachers. The perceived best interests of individual districts cannot be readily reflected in state-generated estimates intended to serve the overall interests of every district in the state. From a statewide standpoint, for example, a particular district may appear to be privileged in comparison with other districts in the state in terms of the quality and number of its available supply of teachers in a particular science or mathematics field. The district, however, may perceive a need to improve the quality of its teachers in that field still further, and thus it may seek to increase the size of its candidate pool despite the state’s perception that the district has no shortage. Likewise, high-school graduation requirements in specific districts may include more science and mathematics courses than the state mandates, and this also may figure into district-generated need projections but not into the state-generated projection. Or, a particular district may want to retain a smaller than mandated class size, and thus it may project a greater need for teachers than the statewide analysis projects it will have.
Elaboration
It is difficult to determine how the quantitative estimate of teacher need should be adjusted to reflect the desire to have a surplus of applicants for science and mathematics teaching positions, especially on a statewide basis. In reality, some schools and districts will always have more applicants for open positions than will others, and applicants from districts with a surplus cannot necessarily be redirected to other districts experiencing a shortage. Thus, a careful district-by-district analysis would be necessary to determine how many additional teachers should be added to a need projection in order to ensure that most districts can hire more selectively.
Also important in calculating how great an applicant surplus is desirable would be some sort of determination of how different ratios of applicants per position are likely to enhance the quality of teachers hired and whether there is some “lowest effective ratio” that significantly improves the likelihood of hiring better teachers. There are few, if any, available empirical studies of the phenomenon that could provide useful guidance.
